Concept 02

Cognitive Biases

Identify the blind spots hardwired into human judgment. Understanding cognitive biases is the first step to thinking more clearly and deciding more rationally.

Key Cognitive Biases

Confirmation Bias

We seek information that confirms what we already believe and discount evidence that contradicts it. This is the most pervasive bias in decision-making.

Availability Heuristic

We judge probability by how easily examples come to mind. Vivid, recent, or emotionally charged events feel more likely than statistics suggest.

Dunning-Kruger Effect

Low competence produces high confidence. The less we know about a domain, the less we understand what we don't know — creating dangerous blind spots.

Sunk Cost Fallacy

Past investments — time, money, effort — should not influence future decisions. Yet we consistently let them. Rational decisions are forward-looking only.

De-biasing Strategies

  1. Name the Bias — Awareness is the first defence. When you catch yourself rationalising, ask: which bias might be operating here?
  2. Seek Disconfirmation — Actively look for evidence that contradicts your current view. Ask: what would change my mind? Then go find it.
  3. Use Pre-Mortems — Before committing, imagine the decision has failed. Work backwards to identify what went wrong. This surfaces risks confirmation bias hides.
  4. Slow Down — Most biases operate in fast, automatic thinking. Introducing deliberate pause — even 10 minutes — activates slower, more rational processing.